2020年2月27日星期四

H. A. Simon：稻草堆最銳利的針〝The Needle and the Haystack〞；動態的 a needle in a haystack

H. A. Simon：稻草堆最銳利的針〝The Needle and the Haystack〞；動態的 a needle in a haystack

這是H. A. Simon喜歡用的 search 之比喻：

a needle in a haystack

something that is impossible or extremely difficult to find, especially because the area you have to search is too large:

Finding the piece of paper I need in this huge pile of documents is like looking for/trying to find a needle in a haystack

21世紀開發萬用流感疫苗的人，因為流感病毒會不斷的"演化"出新一代，所以他們形容自己的任務，像是要從移動的草堆要找出"藏針"：

The push to develop a universal flu vaccine has intensified in recent years, given unusually severe flu outbreaks and emerging pandemic strains, like the swine flu.
But it has been a slow process, partly because researchers are testing multiple strategies as the virus continues to mutate, says Saint Louis University professor of infectious disease and internal medicine Daniel Hoft."It's like running after a haystack that's on the back of a wagon," says Hoft, who is leading the Hotel Influenza study. "And it's moving while you're looking for the needle."~Researchers are stepping up efforts to develop a “universal” flu vaccine.

2000/7/29 www.deming.com.tw home page (partially)
稻草堆最銳利的針

The Needle and the Haystack( Sharpest needle among the haystack.)

2000年6月28日開始練習徒步上下班。下班前不忘進「誠品台大店逛」，幸遇 Andrea Gabor（US News and World Report記者）新書 The Capitalist Philosophers，此記者1990出《戴明傳-發現品質的人（The Man Who Discovered Quality－How W. Edwards Deming Brought the Quality Revolution to America－The Stories of Ford, Xerox, and GM）》，介紹各家，頗有功力；她前數年出《愛因斯坦的女人們》，有中文本。這本《資本主義哲學家們》寫的是一些管理學家（似乎想學暢銷書 The Worldly Philosophers by Robert L. Heibroner，記些經濟學家），戴明和司馬賀都名列其中。此書味道與我較相投。

H. A. Simon一章標題為〝The Needle and the Haystack〞，形容司馬賀是位天才，尤其50年代卡內基理工學院（後來改制為卡內基－梅隆大學，）工業管理研究學院（GSIA）群英會，智識份子和社會科學家的理想國，其中司馬賀猶如稻草堆中藏的一隻最銳利的。他的朋友其得大獎寫道：「吾以但求滿意（satisficing）搜索稻草堆，竟遇稻草堆最銳利的針…」奇人也-資訊時代中的文藝復興式人。

徒步上班，四十年如一日

2000年6月26日讀朱新民和李亦菲合著的《架設人與計算機的橋樑-西蒙的認知與管理心理學》武漢：湖北教育出版社，2000。朱先生是司馬賀在大陸「例中學」計畫的主要合作者。曾去卡內基－梅隆大學（CMU）研究兩次。1989年天安門革命，司馬賀停留北京二天，與朱先生談論半天。

這次讀此書，肯定司馬賀先生自傳中的「步行上班已繞地球八圈」－司馬賀家距CMU約 3公里，每天上下學必徒步，四十年如一日，風雨無阻。

這最能表現此英才了不起的毅力。

2020年2月5日星期三

Information is conveyed at about the same pace in most languages, irrespective of how fast they are spoken

From the archive

ECONOMIST.COM

Why are some languages spoken faster than others?

2020年2月4日星期二

Artificial Intelligence: The promises and the threats (UNESCO Courier)

UNESCO

2月1日下午11:00

Have you thought about the cultural implications of streaming platforms’ algorithms, influencing people’s selection of films and music? 🤔

Find out how cultural diversity is affected by prevailing #AI technologies in the #UNESCOcourier: https://on.unesco.org/2EuFoeS

Artificial Intelligence: The promises and the threats

Digital work by the artist Evgenija Demnievska, representing Janus, the Roman god with two faces: one looking at the past, the other at the future. He presides over all transitions, from one state to another.

Computers and robots are now learning to make decisions! Of course, “deciding” is a big word for machines that have no consciousness and whose level of “reasoning” is not even as evolved as that of a frog. But the latest developments in artificial intelligence (AI) are enough to frighten some and to arouse the fantasies of others.

Between myth and reality, where exactly does the current research stand in this technology that threatens to disrupt all others? In its Wide Angle section, the Courier attempts to untangle the various paths of inquiry and offers some terminological signposts to help uninitiated readers to find their way through the fascinating but scary world of AI.

For many, the word “intelligence” is only a metaphor when it is applied to machines or robots which are destined ‒ we are assured ‒ to remain simple and humble assistants to humans. AI helps us transcend language barriers through machine translation, to perform many routine tasks, even to do the housework, manufacture goods, detect illnesses at an earlier stage than doctors can, and to create prosthetics that can be activated by a thought.

Even so, the combination of deep learning and big data is not only provoking a revolution in AI, but also setting off a Fourth Industrial Revolution(link is external), which our societies may not quite be prepared for. Many experts believe that AI is more of a cultural revolution than a technological one, and that education will have to adapt quickly to the new realities – so that future generations learn to live in a world that is radically different from the one we know today.

The question already being raised is: isn’t there a risk that data available to AI will be used to confirm preconceived ideas and prejudices? Racial profiling, censorship, prediction of the criminal personality, etc. – these discriminatory criteria are already being used by machines that are taught to analyse patterns of behavior. The more complex the technological development becomes, the more complex are the ethical questions it raises. The development of killer robots is a striking example of this.

Alongside these ethical challenges, there is the risk of monopolization of power. While AI is only taking its first steps in Africa, a small number of countries are investing billions of dollars in basic research – which is almost entirely in the hands of a few computing giants, as we know. These international challenges call for international coordination. This is essential if AI is to be developed responsibly.

As our regular readers already know, this is the 70th anniversary of the UNESCO Courier, and in each issue this year, we are publishing an article that takes a retrospective look at the exceptional adventure of our magazine. On 18 July we celebrate another exceptional anniversary: the centenary of the birth of Nelson Mandela, who, during his lengthy imprisonment on Robben Island was deprived of the right to read all publications – except the Courier!

In Trending, we offer you a chance to discover – via drone – the mysterious temples of Tiwanaku in Bolivia. You will also journey to the Galapagos in Ecuador, in the company of Luc Jacquet, the director of March of the Penguins, which won an Oscar in 2006.

Twenty years after the terrible massacres of the war in Algeria, we go back in time with Our Guest, documentary film-maker Malek Bensmaïl – whose mission it is to create a contemporary memory of his country. The relationship between history, memory and artistic creation are also at the core of the reflection of Guadeloupean philosopher Alain Foix, to whom we have devoted the pages of our Ideas section.

In Zoom, we travel the world, this time in the company of Floriane de Lassée, a photographer fascinated by these walkers who transport loads on their heads that are as varied as they are voluminous. With their backs sometimes bent, but their heads still held high, these modern caryatids carry with them the weight of tradition, education, family – and life itself.