Herbert A. Simon Dies at 84; Won a Nobel for Economics
By PAUL LEWIS
Published: February 10, 2001
Herbert A. Simon, an American polymath who won the
Nobel in economics in 1978 with a new theory of decision making and who
helped pioneer the idea that computers can exhibit artificial
intelligence that mirrors human thinking, died yesterday. He was 84.
He died at the Presbyterian University Hospital of
Pittsburgh, according to an announcement by Carnegie Mellon University,
which said the cause was complications after surgery last month. Mr.
Simon was the Richard King Mellon University Professor of Computer
Science and Psychology at the university -- a title that underscored the
breadth of his interests and learning.
Mr. Simon also won the A. M. Turing Award for his
work on computer science in 1975 and the National Medal of Science in
1986. In 1993, he was awarded the American Psychological Association's
award for outstanding lifetime contributions to psychology.
In 1994, he became one of only 14 foreign scientists
ever to be inducted into the Chinese Academy of Sciences and in 1995
was given awards by the International Joint Conferences on Artificial
Intelligence and the American Society of Public Administration.
Awarding him the Nobel, the Swedish Academy of
Sciences cited ''his pioneering research into the decision-making
process within economic organizations'' and acknowledged that ''modern
business economics and administrative research are largely based on
Simon's ideas.''
Professor Simon challenged the classical economic
theory that economic behavior was essentially rational behavior in which
decisions were made on the basis of all available information with a
view to securing the optimum result possible for each decision maker.
Instead, Professor Simon contended that in today's
complex world individuals cannot possibly process or even obtain all the
information they need to make fully rational decisions. Rather, they
try to make decisions that are good enough and that represent reasonable
or acceptable outcomes.
He called this less ambitious view of human decision
making ''bounded rationality'' or ''intended rational behavior'' and
described the results it brought as ''satisficing.''
In his book ''Administrative Behavior'' he set out
the implications of this approach, rejecting the notion of an omniscient
''economic man'' capable of making decisions that bring the greatest
benefit possible and substituting instead the idea of ''administrative
man'' who ''satisfices -- looks for a course of action that is
satisfactory or 'good enough.' ''
Professor Simon's interest in decision making led
him logically into the fields of computer science, psychology and
political science. His belief that human decisions were made within
clear constraints seemed to conform with the way that computers are
programmed to resolve problems with defined parameters.
In the mid-1950's, he teamed up with Allen Newell of
the Rand Corporation to study human decision making by trying to
simulate it on computers, using a strategy he called thinking aloud.
People were asked for the general reasoning
processes they went through as they solved logical problems and these
were then converted into computer programs that Professor Simon and Mr.
Newell thought equipped these machines with a kind of artificial
intelligence that enabled them to simulate human thought rather than
just perform stereotyped procedures.
The breakthrough came in December 1955 when
Professor Simon and his colleague succeeded in writing a computer
program that could prove mathematical theorems taken from the Bertrand
Russell and Alfred North Whitehead classic on mathematical logic,
''Principia Mathematica.''
The following January, Professor Simon celebrated
this discovery by walking into a class and announcing to his students,
''Over the Christmas holiday, Al Newell and I invented a thinking
machine.''
A subsequent letter to Lord Russell explaining his
achievement elicited the reply: ''I am delighted to know that 'Principia
Mathematica' can now be done by machinery. I wish Whitehead and I had
known of this possibility before we wasted 10 years doing it by hand.''
But in a much-cited 1957 paper Professor Simon
seemed to allow his own enthusiasm for artificial intelligence to run
too far ahead of its more realistic possibilities. Within 10 years, he
predicted, ''a digital computer will be the world's chess champion
unless the rules bar it from competition,'' while within the ''visible
future,'' he said, ''machines that think, that learn and that create''
will be able to handle challenges ''coextensive with the range to which
the human mind has been applied.''
Sure enough, the I.B.M computer Deep Blue did
finally beat the world chess champion Gary Kasparov last year -- about
three decades after Mr. Simon had predicted the event would occur.
Because artificial intelligence has not grown as
quickly or as strongly as Professor Simon hoped, critics of his thinking
argue that there are limits to what computers can achieve and that what
they accomplish will always be a simulation of human thought, not
creative thinking itself. As a result, Professor Simon's achievements
have sparked a passionate and continuing debate about the differences
between people and thinking machines.
Born on June 15, 1916, the son of German immigrants,
in Milwaukee, Herbert A. Simon attended public school and entered the
University of Chicago in 1933 with the intention of bringing the same
rigorous methodology to the social sciences as existed in physics and
other ''hard'' sciences.
As an undergraduate his interest in decision making
was aroused when he made a field study of Milwaukee's recreation
department. After receiving his bachelor's degree in 1936 he became an
assistant to Clarence E. Ridley of the International City Managers
Association and then continued work on administrative techniques in the
Bureau of Public Administration of the University of California at
Berkeley.
In 1942, he moved to the Illinois Institute of
Technology and in 1943 received his doctorate from the University of
Chicago for a dissertation subsequently published in 1947 as
''Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in
Administrative Organizations.''
In 1937, he married Dorothea Pye, who survives him
along with three children, Katherine Simon Frank of Minneapolis; Peter
A. Simon of Bryan, Tex.; and Barbara M. Simon of Wilder, Vt.; six
grandchildren, three step-grandchildren; and five great-grandchildren.
A member of the faculty of Carnegie Mellon
University since 1949, Professor Simon played important roles in the
formation of several departments and schools including the Graduate
School of Industrial Administration, the School of Computer Science and
the College of Humanities and Social Sciences' psychology department.
He published 27 books, of which the best known today
are ''Models of Bounded Rationality'' (1997), ''Sciences of the
Artificial''(1996) and ''Administrative Behavior''(1997).
In 1991 he published his autobiography, ''Models of
My Life,'' and remarked then about his vision of that all-vanquishing
computer hunched over the chess boards of the world: ''I still feel good
about my prediction. Only the time frame was a bit short.'' And so it
was.
Photo: Herbert A. Simon (Ken Andreyo/Carnegie Mellon University)